There seems to be three fundamental core outlooks on AI’s likely impact on jobs. There is the ‘AI will float all boats’ viewpoint, i.e. it will create vast productivity gains and drive growth (often voiced by Governments).
And there is the ‘AI – on a much shorter than previously anticipated timescale – will replace humans on most jobs (Elon Musk seems to be in this space).
And then there is the view that AI will, for most knowledge workers, be a difficult-to-predict mix of replacing – being a substitute for what humans do – whilst also enabling many tasks that will remain essentially human driven.
Given the “jagged” way AI advances, it is difficult to get a clear line of sight into which of these three ‘futures’ is the most likely.
But hopefully this piece from Adam Riley and myself on our SubStack will help get the conversation going about how close to AGI (however we define it) AI has to be for it to cut deep into jobs. We would welcome your thoughts.